1. For the following argument, state what kind of argument you think it is, and then explain why you interpret the argument as one of this type, and not some other type. The last time we went on holiday with my in-laws, we went to the same resort, and we went at the same time of year; the weather was terrible, we were all trapped inside together, and the holiday turned out to be a disaster. So, I assume that our upcoming holiday with my in-laws will be a disaster. 2. Suppose that you just attempted to use your credit card at the grocery store and the transaction didn’t go through. You already know that whenever a credit card is cancelled by the bank, no transactions using that card will go through. What other specific statistical information would you need in order to determine how probable it is that your credit card has been cancelled, given that this attempted transaction didn’t go through? 3. Suppose that you phone an employee, Ben, who hasn’t shown up for work, and he tells you that he is dealing with a family emergency. Using Bayes’s theorem, calculate the posterior probability for the hypothesis “Ben is dealing with a family emergency” given the evidence that Ben says he is dealing with a family emergency. You will have to make an educated guess for the values of likelihood, posterior probability, and expectedness in this case; explain why you have chosen the value you have for each of these three terms.