Terry Tycoon checks into an expensive hotel in New York City. As he washes up before getting dressed for the opera, Terry takes off his $5,000 watch. When he is dressed, he leaves the room to go down to the lobby and catch a cab. He passes a maid entering to clean his room as he is leaving. After the opera, Terry notices that his watch is missing. When he gets back to his room, he cannot find his watch. Terry does not remember whether he put on his watch after washing up. Terry suspects that the maid stole the watch, so he submits a theft claim to his homeowners insurer under a standard homeowners policy, which will pay for lost or mislaid property only where the evidence proves that the most likely thing to have happened was that it was stolen. How will the insurer likely respond to this theft claim and on what grounds?